Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Private Airports
The real and somewhat hidden problem was money. Congress controlled the purse stings. Dollars needed for operations, and capital improvements had to be appropriated by Congress and were expense lines in the Federal budget. Long range planning was one year. Airport employees were government employees. Hiring and firing practices were subject to Federal regulations. In the late 1980’s Congress saw the light and leased these airports to the newly formed MWAA. (Of course part of the deal was a continuation of the parking perks.) Overnight these airports were transformed into modern marvels of air transportation. The private capital markets provided billions in bond financing after carefully buying into long-term plans for the airports. The FAA airport employees left the Federal till and became private employees of MWAA. Freed of the chains of government, the cream, and there was a lot of it, rose to the top and more miracles happened. All this was led by my friend Jim Wilding who spent most of his career with the FAA beginning as an engineer. Jim was always a great leader and visionary, but MWAA gave him the opportunity to really shine.
Today we have yet another new airport model emerging. The FAA has a pilot program to privatize a few airports. The most notable is Chicago Midway. Chicago got a taste of what privatizing can do when they leased the Chicago Skyway toll bridge to Australia’s Macquarie Bank for $1.8 billion for 99 years. In many ways Midway reminds me of the old rundown National Airport. Hopefully privatization will shine a new light on Midway. As with highway funds, airport funding is finding stiff competition for a share of Federal dollars in the face of growing deficits, as well as disaster, terror, and war funding.
Let government regulate and private industry operate. It should be the American way.
For a history of airport privatization worldwide read Bob Poole’s 1998 address to AAAE, Why Airport Privatization's Time Has Come.
(Next the conundrum of general aviation airports.)
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Terror Alert
I discovered later I was lucky to even get a hello as that day resulted in a record number of calls for charter aircraft. As after 9/11, the demand for air charter, both international and domestic, has seen a sharp up tick. Some press reports mention over 60%. As men forfeit their shaving cream and tooth paste and women $500 cosmetics at security gates, business jets travel is getting more and more attention. It’s too bad such awful events are giving this boost to our industry. We have always touted efficiency, speed, and comfort, but security was never first on the list. Unfortunately it now is.
Inslee’s Gulfstream turned into a United 777, the same one she was originally booked on. She spent 6 hour making new friends at Heathrow and flying home with the lightest carryon in her short traveling career – a baggie.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
Eclipse of the Eclipse?
Eclipse has an order backlog reported to be over 2,300. A significant number of these orders and options are from by two startup air taxi companies, DayJet and Linear. Linear’s founder, Al Herp, claims to have proven his model. Operationally maybe, but this company that operates Cessna Caravans between the Boston and New York markets, has reportedly stacked up huge losses. The Caravan is built like a truck and is the staple of the small package feeders for FedEx, UPS, etc. It has a proven operational history and a wide service network. The Eclipse has neither. DayJet has proven only that they can raise capital. So far they have raised $18 million from private investors. Raymond James is trying to raise another $135 million to fund the purchase of their first delivery of Eclipses and startup of operations.
Vaughn Cordle, a member of The Aviation Group team, CEO of Airline Forecasts, and a pilot for a major airline, believes most of the VLJ air taxi start-up companies will fail. He says these business models are not realistic. Residual values on the aircraft are overly optimistic as are the number of hours each plane can fly per year. Larger business jets fly 350 to 400 hours a year, not 2,000 or more as projected by Linear and DayJet. Vaughn also believes their business models are not realistic in forecasting demand and the percentage of seats they will fill. Vaughn has a pretty good crystal forecasting ball. Check out his 2002 condemnation of Avolar the failed United Airlines attempt to start a fractional company to compete with NetJets. For an in depth look at the VLJ market, read Vaughn’s paper, “Dot Coms with Wings: A Fun and Exciting Way to Lose Money”.
There is talk in the clubhouse of an Eclipse IPO. My father once told me that when his caddy gave him a stock tip he knew it was time to get out of the market. Unfortunately there are very few golf caddies today unless you play with Tiger’s crowd and this group owns real business jets. No room for a set of clubs in an Eclipse.
We will have more to say in future articles about who we believe will be the winners in the evolving light jet industry (yes, we believe there will some) and how this part of the business jet industry is evolving and creating new markets. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Honda's Horse Enters the Race

I had the pleasure of watching this exciting new jet as it grew from an embryo to a full test aircraft. All the early design and testing work on the prototype was done in Skunk Works like secrecy. Just over a year ago two of my close associates and I were treated to a tour of this top secret facility.

(Keith Garner, Don Godwin, Michimasa Fujino, Al Blackburn, and yours truly enjoy the afterglow of our simulator flight.)
We were able to inspect and even touch the aircraft. I discussed the finer points on the hangar floor and during lunch with Michimasa Fujino, the plane's chief designer and engineer. Perhaps the highpoint of the day was when Fujino offered me an opportunity to fly the Honda Jet simulator in the hangar next to the airplane. The same group of engineers that designed the Honda Jet designed and built the simulator. The same building that housed the Honda Jet and the simulator was also home to a flight following arena that looked like what you see at NASA during the launch and recovery of the space shuttle. Telemetry transmits all the real time flight test data back to this room in Greensboro, NC, and to Japan.
Watch this aircraft carefully. It may not have been the first horse out of the gate in the VLJ race, but it is a serious contender. I will have much more to say about the VLJs and the many commercial ventures being built around this new class of aircraft. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, July 5, 2006
Freedom of Maintenance Information
Instructions for Continued Airworthiness (ICA) are the manuals required to maintain aircraft in airworthy condition. The Federal Aviation Regulations require the holders of design approvals for aircraft, aircraft engines and propellers to prepare ICAs and make them available to persons required to comply with the terms of the instructions, including owners and repair stations that perform maintenance on the products. The FAA has been slow to enforce its regulations requiring aviation manufacturers to make this vital information available to repair stations and product owners.
Last April the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Georgia in Savannah ruled in Summary Judgment in favor of CAMP Systems in a suit filed by Gulfstream. In a crushing blow to Gulfstream the court stated, “What Gulfstream seeks here is to use its claimed copyright in its manuals to gain a judicially-enforced monopoly in maintenance tracking services for Gulfstream aircraft. That outcome would be injurious to the free-market public policy advanced through antitrust and restrain-of-trade laws. It would be especially egregious since Gulfstream is required by federal regulations to produce the manuals anyway.” The court also ruled that Federal copyright law does not apply to maintenance manuals.
This decision could have a huge positive implication to the entire aviation MRO industry as many manufacturers have refused to make maintenance manuals available to independent maintenance providers who, like CAMP, borrowed the manuals from aircraft owners - an awkward and sometime complicated process.
In June the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) asked the court to reconsider. I predict that GAMA’s very effective lobbying skills will have little effect on the court. Stay tuned, this could be a big win for everyone – aircraft owners, repair stations, and I believe eventually the OEMs who should be concerned about their customers’ ability to have their aircraft properly maintained.
Friday, June 30, 2006
Fixing a Failing ATC System
Let me begin by saying I believe in the free market system. I also believe the Federal Government should be responsible for the security and safety of our citizens, our monetary system, and for helping those that can not help themselves. When our government tries to run a business it is usually a mess – expensive and inefficient. Air Traffic Control (ATC) is a perfect example. (I will save similar comments on general aviation airports for a later post.)
Despite the ads run by the controllers’ union, ATC in the
Our FAA-managed and regulated ATC was using vacuum tube equipment until a few years ago. Productivity is terrible today and has been for years. The FAA is short of money just to operate the system. Literally billion of dollars of taxpayer funds have been wasted on developmental programs that have later been cancelled. As opposed to private industry, government does not have to justify a return on investment or pay back funds that have been advanced by bond holders. Inefficient is not a strong enough word to describe this situation.
So why is our government still running this ATC service organization than can easily stand on its own?
First congress is unwilling to give up control of an organization with a large labor force that can bring jobs to a powerful Congressman’s district. For example, recently the House passed an amendment to the Transportation Appropriations Bill, H.R. 5576, by a vote of 261 to 166.
“None of the funds made available in this Act may be used to eliminate, consolidate, co-locate, or plan for the consolidation or co-location of a Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON).”
As a result several clear thinking members of Congress are proposing a commission or process similar to the military Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process to overcome the “not in my district” syndrome.
Secondly, the controllers union, NATCA, is strongly opposed to reform mainly because they feel it will be a threat to their jobs and pay scales. Controllers are among the highest paid government employees, even higher that most members of Congress. NATCA recently lost a battle with the FAA and Congress for even higher pay scales.
The third major road block is the major general aviation trade associations, particularly AOPA, NBAA, and NATA. Pilots are afraid of user fees, despite the fact that they are already paying a user fee in the form of a fuel tax. The problem with any tax is it first goes to the U. S. Treasury to which Congress holds the key – back to problem number one.
For much more on this subject click on this link to the Reason Foundation. I have provided links in the side bar to articles on ATC that I think are worth reading.
Sunday, June 18, 2006
Subjects We Will Be Discussing:
- What are the new trends in General Aviation?
- What is the case for changing the way ATC is organized and managed?
- What impact will the new VLJs have?
- What is the next trend in industry consolidation?
- What are the issues that you feel are important to our industry?